Wade’s overturning moved prices in spurts over time. Instead, the January 6 hearings and Roe v. Neither did far-right representatives falsely accusing Democrats of pedophilia during Child Abuse Prevention Month. Major events like the 2022 State of the Union, Biden’s handling of Ukraine, and Ketanji Brown Jackson’s confirmation to the Supreme Court haven’t moved prediction markets. What Changed 2022 Balance of Power Predictions While the House of Representatives is likely to flip to the Republicans, the Senate is a toss-up. Wade’s overturn, lies about the 2020 presidential election, and economic issues like gas prices, inflation, and cost of living hang over tight midterm races. The human trafficking cases opened against Ron DeSantis may rally conservatives, but could hurt him with Independents.Īll the while, Roe v. The FBI warrant that reclaimed stolen classified documents are Mar-a-Lago harmed Trump’s image, which affects Republican House and Senate races. (The overround is the number of cents over the 100 that a perfectly certain prediction market’s prices would add to.) In the last week of September 2022, PredictIt’s balance of power market showed high uncertainty with a nine-cent overround. But there’s more nuance in a gubernatorial race than a congressional race. Partisanship is still a strong predictor of a governor’s party. They enjoyed approval ratings of 54% and 79% respectively in mid-2021. Democratic Vermont has a Republican governor. Republican Kansas’ governor is a Democrat. Governor races are more difficult to predict than congressional control.Īs FiveThirtyEight points out, governors can overcome partisanship in a way that congressional candidates can’t. While PredictIt offers races on state gubernatorial races, bettors interested in those markets will have to find them on PredictIt’s website.

Midterm election